is Japan really in a economy crisis right now?

[theultimatebrucelee]

or at least pretty bad economy recently? reason I'm asking is that I noticed for the past few weeks most of the YJA auctions I bookmarked either ended with no bidder or at a really, really low price. and next week I'm planing on selling something on YJA as well, will it be affected by this problem? or better yet, is there a economy problem over there or was it all just my imagination? anyone any thoughts on this?

[Shampoo]

They've been struggling w/ yen fluctuations and a weak
consumer enviroment just as the U.S. is . Not to mention
their financial guru head in gov is very ill and had to step down
from his job, one he had held for 30 years. So I know they are
scrambling there too w/ decisions-- not to mention new government party elected just last year (ha! if you can even call it that w/ all the same old farts jus
from the old party ). Their unemployment rate has also been on the high side,
I think last I checked around 7-8%?
And they are having a similar housing crisis too and taxes soaring on
properties.

I'm sure someone here on A-B whose currently living in Japan can tellb
you better than I could.
But generally speaking, yes, they are experiencing a crappy economy much like
most of E.U and U.S.

[theultimatebrucelee]

eh, that sounds pretty bad..I just noticed this about a month ago, before that everything on YJA seemed normal.

so is there a chance of it getting better soon? and crap! so you mean like right now is the best time to buy anime cels and such right? since bidders in Japan won't be a challenge anymore..and then they'd also be forced to sell their precious collection ahahahamuhahahahahaa its finally the chance for USD to shine(no wonder exchange rate is not going down anymore)!! must save up all my lunch money from now on

[Shampoo]

eh, that sounds pretty bad..I just noticed this about a month ago, before that everything on YJA seemed normal.

so is there a chance of it getting better soon?

Well, its been going on I'd say about 2.5-3 years
Maybe even longer, just that the 2.5-3 years its been in
the international news headlines more often.
In the U.S., thou some dont like to admit it, this "rececession"
has been going on almost 4.5 years .

and crap! so you mean like right now is the best time to buy anime cels and such right? since bidders in Japan won't be a challenge anymore..and then they'd also be forced to sell their precious collection ahahahamuhahahahahaa its finally the chance for USD to shine(no wonder exchange rate is not going down anymore)!! must save up all my lunch money from now on

Soooo not to sound gloom and doom, but I dont suspect
that their economy will turn around in months time. Nor do I
think ours will either.
I think it will take years for the yen to stabilize . to a rate
that will make it easier for them to export to west--
if it even wants to anymore.
Aahh I miss the old 140Y=$1 ratio.


As for less compeition, I've actually seen more money rollin out
on crappier shots . W/ bad times comes new money .
Certainly there will always be a great deal during rough times, but
I wouldnt count out high-rollers completely. Mandarake's past few
BWA are testament that there are still $$ hardcore otakus in Nippon.

[theultimatebrucelee]

Well, its been going on I'd say about 2.5-3 years
Maybe even longer, just that the 2.5-3 years its been in
the international news headlines more often.
In the U.S., thou some dont like to admit it, this "rececession"
has been going on almost 4.5 years . I actually had a convo about this
w/ a friend about how even when we were graduating college in
2006 we were already seeing unemployment go up and watching
companies fold up. By then we were already super paranoid about not
being able to find/land a job. Sure enough, I was literally the last person
in my dept to be hired. Shortly after, there was a hire-freeze.

really? well I only noticed the recession toward the end of last year, when I was trying to switch to a new job, which I wasn't able to in the end. and I prably wasn't into importing stuff at the time but the highest exchange rate I remember was 120yen=1usd, but, 140 would have been a dream come true

I'm talking about major effect towards purchasing power in Japan recently, really I didn't notice the problem(at least not on YJA) until last few weeks. before that the ending auction price(even for mandarake)seemed normal/crazy as usual. and that's why I was wondering if some major depression suddenly occurred over there and everyone had just ran out of money.

[Quacker]

To answer your questions bluntly & honestly ultimatelee- yes. Yes it is & has been for nearly two decades now.
Allow me first to get some definitions out of the way that you may have heard recently in the media: a "recession" is defined by having two periods (or quarters, one quarter = 3months) of negative growth. That is, rather than an economy growing, it shrinks - people lose jobs, spend less, less goods are produced, less exports which means less money flowing back into the economy etc.
Japan's Gross Domestic Product or GDP(how an economy is measured & compared) has remained stagnant since the early '90s and they have not been able to fully pull themselves out. There have been brief periods of growth, but equally, there have been serious periods of negativity.
There are two main forms of recession - the common one being what most of you are having to endure through now, that is, periods of both negative activity & job loss. The second type, which occurs less often, but is slightly more serious is when an economy has two periods of growth, but with increasing unemployment rate. Japan has gone through both.

These days, the Japanese economy is a complete basket-case. Back in the 1970s & 80s their economy was a true powerhouse, but nowadays that is no longer the case.
Their traditionalist views struggle with modern business practices. Most Businesses, from the smallest family-run shops, through to medium sized enterprises to the large, domineering multi-national conglomerates use old & out-dated business practices.
As a common example, take the Sony Playstation3: it is made up of over 650 separate different components & most of those are sourced from different companies - would it not be more efficient & less costly to try to produce as many parts as possible in-house or from the same source? It is the same with our beloved anime - take a look at the end credits next time & you will see a listing of all the different studios that contributed or had some part to play in the creation of that episode.
A Gonzo production, Last exile for example, may have had at least 20 other main front line studios such as Gainax, Studio Deen or Bones contribute labour to that production. That is the way they do business - in layman's terms: I shall send some work your way, if you send some to me.
As a stark reality check, in these post GFC times, debt is bad - the Japanese national debt is over 250% what their GDP currently is!? What does that mean? Picture what your total income is for the year, now imagine for each dollar you earn, you owed $250!!

Japan's Nikkei (their stock market index, equilivent to the US Dow Jones or the UK FTSE, or Aussie ASX) traded above 30,000 in it's glory days during the late eighties, early nineties, but nowadays struggles to remain over 11,000. Meaning that investors have lost close to 2/3rds of their wealth during that time period.

As for your question, has this affected YJA results and spending habits & more importantly, will it affect your auction? No I do not believe so:
The Japanese economy has been this way for nearly 20years. People still have money, jobs are available just not plentiful, wage increases are few & far between. Generation X equivalents would have been going through school during the 'glory' days & be employed towards the end of those days. Gen.Y upon entering the workforce would have been even more hard pressed, but more used to the stagnant conditions. Plus you have a lot more international bidders operating on YJA through third partys such as Rinkya & Celga.

Phew, okay I am now stepping off my soap box & putting away the chalk & chalkboard.

[cutiebunny]

I think, like anywhere else in the world, it depends on where you go. There are some places in the US where you would never know that the country is in a depression(yes, in economic terms, that's what it is) while there are other places, sometimes just a few blocks away, where you'd think some calamity has occurred.

The same can be said in Japan. If you spent your entire time on the Ginza strip, you would be surprised to think that the Japanese economy is suffering. The big stores like Mitsukoshi are still open and people are still buying $20 apples there. The cafes and jewelry stores are crowded there as well. Some stores still pick their spendy customers up in private cars and drop them off at hotels in the area. It's not uncommon to see the Ginza stacked with these cars around closing time.

But when you go to a poorer section, such as the Nishi-kasai district, you'd understand that people are suffering. People live in run-down apartments and it was not uncommon to see extended families living in one. One hour prior to closing, the supermarket discounts its pre-made food 50%. And while everyone likes a good deal, when you witness how aggressive these people become over a 1000 yen dish of sushi(many seemed to 'stock' up on food for the next day), you can see the situation that people are in. And when 100 yen stores are prevalent in the area, it's also a good sign that people living there don't have a lot of funds.

Concerning artwork, I agree that because there are both national and international competitors, that there will always be some competition. High end cels will always command high end prices because there are always people who will specifically buy this type of artwork and nothing else.

[iceman57]

I'm planing on selling something on YJA as well, will it be affected by this problem?

Focus on the ECB or FED curves on the currencies exchanges.
The more the yen amount for a dollar is increasing, the weaker is japanese economy.
By using this as a lever you can save approx. 10 to 15% on your purchasings on a monthly basis.

But generally speaking, yes, they are experiencing a crappy economy much like most of E.U and U.S.

Definitely.

As for your question, has this affected YJA results and spending habits & more importantly, will it affect your affection? No I do not believe so.

Really good synthesis.

At my side, I studied a bit if addiction was a lever strong enough to avoid a reduction of buyers in recession times...
Unfortunally from the data I studied, there is a true plunge on the last years from a medium price segment (approx. 15000 JPY) to a lower price segment (approx. 5000 JPY).
Premium anime arts are affected as with the art market, people prefer postpone their purchasings.

[theultimatebrucelee]

... ...you guys really know whats up, I'd never expect answers in such quality in the usual anime/gaming related sites.. Quacker is the pro since his been doing financial so I guess anime related stuff really is supporting Japan's economy nowadays huh, really didn't know Japan's been doing that bad since decades ago and always thought they were the top economy in the world with all their anime and video game stuff..good lesson

cutiebunny's also got a point, I hate those stinky rich bastards, and I also blame my parents for not achieve the rank of millionaire before I was born

take a random guess on iceman's study and I'll say high value purchases was not decreased? well that's all I need to know for now, as long as there are rich buyers out there things will sell..eh, I don't hate them anymore all of a sudden..

[Quacker]

lol That is what we are all about here 'lee - being both fun & educational Seriously, I do try to pass on as much knowledge onto my clients, so in turn, they may be more fully aware of what is happening around them in the equity markets.
You would think that with the vast amount of anime & video games sourced from Japan, that it would help their economy drastically? Unfortunately, for the most part, that is not the case.
When an Anime production is at it's initial planning stages, I mean right at it's very beginnings, where the production staff meet with the executives to decide upon the style & budget of the preposed production - revenue earned from Western countries is still not taken into consideration or factored into profit projections?! For most Studio Executives, the larger Western Audiences of the US, Europe, Pacific/Australia are still only a second consideration.
The Anime Industry & it's products in Japan have been in a decline for at least 6/7years now, whereas Anime in the West is steadily becoming more mainstream, more socially accepted & in some instances demanded - yet Studio Exec's have thus far failed to take advantage of the growing popularity elsewhere in the world. This is part of the 'isolated' culture that is still very prevelant within Japanese Business & society - we experience it daily on YJA - "Seller will not ship internationally". Now if you were a seller of a product, would you not want to try to reach as many potential buyers as possible, rather than narrowing your options? The Majority of Senior Studio Executives are still of the view that going through the procedures of licensing, royality payments, advertising, merchandising etc. with Western studios, production houses is more of a chore than anything else! This isolative stance is very much a contributing factor to why their economy is suffering as it is.
To my knowledge, only two studio's thus far have requested the services of Western consultants & partnerships to develop a Universal or only slightly delayed English release for their new productions. They have cottoned onto the fact that the quicker they get their production out to the Western audiences, the more likely someone will actually purchase their DVD/Blu-ray rather than simply downloading it elsewhere and/or watching it over the 'net.

There are some places in the US where you would never know that the country is in a depression(yes, in economic terms, that's what it is)

Harsh but true Cutiebunny. I am so glad someone finally said the dreaded "D" word. True, the US was in a Depression, though never admitted by the media as they did not wish to instigate a full-scale panic (lol I can remember one time back in '08, when the Global Financial Crisis was in full swing, I was due to give an intraday report on the markets for Skynews. The Director passed this suggestion onto me: - always describe The 'Best' worst case scenairo, but never mention The True worst case - twas good advice). Anyway, amazing how the US had slightly over 12months of negative growth, yet the 'D-word' was used sparringly. For those wondering, the common acceptance of when a Depression is declared is when there have been four consecutive periods of negative growth. I did say 'were' in a recession (depression?) as all of the reports that have landed on my Desk since mid last year, have indicated a growing GDP, albeit only ever so slightly positive, but still positive nonetheless. More recent figures starting from this year have been much better, unfortunately you are having to endure through the side-affects a recession/depression brings.
For those living in the UK/Europe - I am sorry to say that you guys still have so way to go before things will improve

[cutiebunny]

When it comes to the number game, I don't buy a lot of what is coming out, at least in terms of US figures. Our figures for unemployment are so skewed; We fail to take into account those people that have exhausted their unemployment and those that have just stopped looking. And that doesn't even take into account the plethora of people in the US that are 'underemployed' - working part time.

So, yes, while the statistical data states that there's been a slight upswing in employment, I feel that data is incorrect. There are still many places in California where the unemployment rate is upwards of 20%. I would imagine similiar rates throughout the US. And, once again, that doesn't include those who are underemployed.

I believe that the US is still in for a very, very rough ride because of all the programs that have been put in place in the past year. Our government excels at underestimating costs, and I can only imagine what the real cost of the health care bill is going to be. Not only that, but the new version of the housing bill now allows speculators to take advantage of the cash-back incentives. So, once again, people will be priced out of the market due to property investment.

I fail to understand why the current regime can not revive Roosevelt's economic recovery plan. Even in today's climate, putting people to work on public projects would benefit everyone.

As for the use of the 'D' word, I, too, do not understand the stigma attached to it. Most people who lived through the depression have passed away, so the memory of it is not as fresh as it would be, say, two decades ago. However, as anyone who studied statistics knows, numbers can easily be cooked to reflect whatever you want them to.

And if you need further proof, look to Greece


(end economics rant)

[iceman57]

You would think that with the vast amount of anime & video games sourced from Japan, that it would help their economy drastically? Unfortunately, for the most part, that is not the case.

Japanese stock exchange genererally ends yearly period on positive balance, by the sales of videogame systems (Playstation & Wii especially the last years).

whereas Anime in the West is steadily becoming more mainstream, more socially accepted & in some instances demanded

Not so sure about, especially due to massive outsource in Korea and China. Note that European characters turn to be mangaised to access TV series (last example I recently saw was "Valerian" a mid-70s European comic).

This is part of the 'isolated' culture that is still very prevelant within Japanese Business & society - we experience it daily on YJA - "Seller will not ship internationally".

Yup, back in the "Edo" era, when Europe, USA and Russia signed the peace documents with the reopened Japan
It appears that there is a revival of a 150 years ago fashion for Japan that launched the impressionist art wave and now came in the comic industry. Put japanese codes makes it fashionable

Same when you have to arrange a bank transfer in Japan (my last BWA payback), Japan did not validate the IBAN (international bank protocol).
You've to send the central bank the account, the owner adress, name,... like we did in the 60s !!!

For those living in the UK/Europe - I am sorry to say that you guys still have so way to go before things will improve.

Well, UK, Greece, Spain, Portugal and eventually France I agree, but Germany stills up
Appears that we are back to the strong "Mark" currency policy.

And if you need further proof, look to Greece

Well not so easy to summarize, from the reports this is more a speculative way that was used in this case volunteerly to enter the market.
But this is true that when economy is in trouble you can see where are located the weakpoints.
In the last year I was buying american for the same reason, weak situation, currency balance in the advantage of Euro...

Quacker is the pro since his been doing financial

And really good in synthesis wich is definitively not so easy on such hard topics.

Really didn't know Japan's been doing that bad since decades ago and always thought they were the top economy in the world with all their anime and video game stuff.

Seek also the press and Bank of Japan planned interventions that makes the yen ponctually stronger to put your sales on the net before those announces.

Take a random guess on iceman's study and I'll say high value purchases was not decreased?

Ain't a guess, based on 1773 anime cels on two yearly periods including the "crisis" top pike on Autumn 2008. As you're a Lee Xiao Long fan, let's say my data are Chuck Norris approved

The 'high value' on japanese anime cel are in my opinion not yet existing, compare the rare reached 5K arts with 50K on american animation art wich are true high values. Japanese maret yearly growing but still conidential, even if the early collectors started 15-20 years ago. If you consider that japanese anime is high so focus on Christies or Sothebyes sales that were plunging.

Cutiebunny's also got a point, I hate those stinky rich bastards, and I also blame my parents for not achieve the rank of millionaire before I was born.

Rich ? What does "Rich" stand for ? As wrote up this not yet an art market but still a hobby, so this line is a bit reductive.

From a demographic point of view there are not yet self fortune made people on japanese animation (based on 934 collectors). Consequently there are only "confortable" people or heirs from some family fortune. So place your arts but keep the premium ones in a safe for future Big Lee Auctions.
In the coming years, would appear some "UltimateBruceWayne" rich people, and that will definitively turn japanese market to a real art market, and that will be really interesting
I'll especially have a look on China that propelled out France from the TOP 3 art market place on fine arts.